Investing

Is now a good time to invest in Toronto real estate? The case for 2026 and 2027, and the risks

Prices are about 30% below the 2022 peak, borrowing costs are well below their 2023 highs and the new-home pipeline is shrinking. But rents are falling and population growth has slowed. A balanced look before you commit capital.

Published October 14, 2026

In short

Buyers have negotiating power again: the GTA benchmark price is roughly 30% below its early-2022 peak, with about 4.6 months of inventory.
The pipeline of new homes is shrinking fast. New condo sales and launches are at multi-decade lows, which points to fewer completions later this decade.
The risks are real: rents have been falling year over year for more than two years, population growth has slowed and the economy is uncertain. Cash flow, not appreciation, should carry the decision.

Every cycle has a stretch where the headlines are worst and the opportunities are best. Whether Toronto is there now depends on your timeline, your financing and what you buy. Here is how we see the case for and against investing over the next 12 to 24 months.

The case for buying now

Prices have reset

The GTA composite benchmark was $917,600 in September 2026, roughly 30% below its early-2022 peak and 4.7% lower than a year earlier. With 4.6 months of inventory and homes selling for about 98% of their list price on average, buyers can negotiate on price, closing dates and conditions in a way that was impossible three years ago.

Borrowing costs are well off their highs

The Bank of Canada’s policy rate is 2.25%, less than half the 5% it held from July 2023 to June 2024, and it has not changed all year. The lowest advertised five-year fixed rates for insured mortgages are around 4.3%.

The pipeline of new homes is drying up

Urbanation counted just 246 new condo sales in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area in the first quarter of 2026, and no project launches. Completions are expected to fall from about 29,600 in 2025 to about 21,850 in 2026. In our view, the projects that are not selling or launching today are homes that will be missing in 2029 and 2030, when demand has had time to recover.

Policy is moving in the market’s favour

Toronto allows up to four units on most residential lots, and up to six in nine wards, and charges no development charges on multiplexes of up to six units.
In June 2026, City Council approved development charge cuts of 40% to 60%, tied to federal and provincial funding.
Ontario’s enhanced HST rebate returns up to $130,000 to people buying new homes of up to $1.5 million to live in, for agreements signed between April 1, 2026 and March 31, 2027. That supports demand for new construction.
The federal Underused Housing Tax no longer applies from 2025.

Toronto’s job engine

CBRE ranks Toronto third among North American tech talent markets in 2026, after the region added about 75,000 tech jobs between 2022 and 2025. Well-paid employment growth supports demand for family homes and premium rentals.

The risks to weigh

Rents are falling. Toronto’s average asking rent was $2,554 in September 2026, down 1.4% from a year earlier, and rents have been lower year over year for more than two years. Many new condos do not cover their costs at today’s rents.
Slower population growth. Since 2024, Ottawa has reduced immigration targets and limited temporary residents, removing a major source of rental demand.
Economic uncertainty. TRREB says uncertainty kept buyers on the sidelines in September, and national unemployment is around 6.5%.
Short-term condo oversupply. A record number of completed new units remain unsold, which holds down condo prices and rents for now.
Policy can change. The foreign buyer ban, tax rules and rental regulations are all in motion. See our guide to the foreign buyer ban.

Want us to run the numbers on a specific property? We model purchase costs, financing, rent and exit before you commit. Book an investor consultation and we guarantee a call back within 3 hours.

How we would approach it

Underwrite at today’s rent and a higher rate. The property should carry itself, or come close, at current market rent and a stress-tested rate.
Favour scarcity. Ground-related homes, family-sized units in good locations and lots that can add units have held their value better than small condos. This year, semi-detached prices are almost flat while condo apartments are down 7.7%.
Use the market to negotiate. Price, closing dates and conditions are all negotiable again.
Plan for five to ten years. Transaction costs in Toronto are high, and short holds rarely work.
Settle the tax and legal structure first, especially if you live outside Canada.

If you are looking at buildings with several units, read our guide to multiplexes in Toronto and our multi-unit and multifamily page. For pre-construction, our sister platform PreConstruction Canada tracks projects and incentives.

This article is general market commentary, not financial, legal or tax advice. Past performance does not predict future results.